Dubuque, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS63 KDVN 020012
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
612 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light accumulating snow will continue this
  afternoon and evening. On top of what has already fallen
  today, there could be an additional coating up to one inch of
  snow.

- Temperatures will gradually warm this week to near seasonal
  values. High temperatures may warm above normal by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Widespread light snow continues across the area this afternoon as we
remain under a mid-level shortwave impulse, which can be seen very
well in the GOES-East mid-level water vapor satellite imagery. Ample
moisture has been available for ice crystal growth within the
dendritic growth zone (DGZ), which the 01.12z HREF ensemble
soundings all suggest through the afternoon before loss of ice as we
go into the evening hours. So far, we`ve received a few reports of
around two- to three-tenths of snow from this morning. An additional
coating up to one inch of snow is possible, so some slick road
conditions are expected in spots. Limited snowfall rates of less
than a quarter inch per hour will keep accumulations limited, but
southwest winds gusting to around 25 mph or so could result in some
blowing snow, most likely in rural, open areas. With the expected
ice loss aloft this evening, there is an outside chance (<10% per
the latest ensembles) for some freezing drizzle to occur as there
will be some lingering moisture in the column below the DGZ to
support the freezing drizzle. Lift appears to be quite weak,
however, and in fact, could be some subsidence in the low-levels to
help limit this freezing drizzle potential so will keep out of the
official forecast, but something to watch for this evening.

Cloud cover should dissipate overnight into early Monday as the
drier air takes control. Additionally, upper-level ridging will
develop in the wake of the ongoing shortwave. It will actually feel
pretty seasonal as far as temperatures are concerned, with highs
warming to the middle 20s along Highway 20 to the lower 30s south of
I-80. These temperatures may be a bit cooler if any locations
receive a fresh inch of snow today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The long-term period looks mostly dry, despite a few clipper systems
passing over the area at times, mainly for Monday night and again
Thursday night. The primary limiting factor appears to be a lack of
moisture, so measurable precip appears more difficult to come by.
The latest NBM actually keeps our area dry for the Monday night
system, but several of the individual 01.12z ECMWF and GEFS ensemble
members do indicate some light QPF associated with a mid-level
shortwave, along with a low-level FGEN banded precip signature, so
we did introduce some slight chances (10-20%) of precip along the
Highway 20 corridor. Some models are even more bullish than this, so
we`ll have to re-evaluate the size of the footprint of
precipitation. A larger system grazes our northeastern areas
Thursday night. NBM only has 10-20% chances of precip for our far
northeast, so not much coverage for that system either. With all of
this said, it appears likely that most of the CWA will remain dry
for the next week.

The bigger story for this week will be a trend towards warmer
temperatures for the latter portions of the week. Large-scale
ridging along with a Rex Block pattern is progged to develop across
the western CONUS, which will support thermal ridging over our
region, although to what degree looks uncertain at this time as the
ECMWF ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures are at least a few degrees
warmer compared to the GEFS ensembles. The LREF exceedance
probabilities of high temperatures at the freezing mark or warmer
increases to 60 to 90% for Thursday and Friday. Those that have been
looking for some relief from our recent stretch of cold, the end of
next week looks to provide that relief in a big way. Some folks
across our south may see highs in the lower 40s!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Snow will move out of the area in the next few hours. A slight
chance (20%) for fzdz at DBQ is possible for the next 3 hours.
After that conditions will improve to VFR for the rest of the
period, especially after daybreak.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Gibbs